Research

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented levels of federal aid transfers to state governments. Did this funding increase benefit state incumbents electorally? Identifying the effect of revenue windfalls on economic voting is challenging because whatever conditions led to the influx of cash might also benefit or harm incumbent politicians for a variety of other reasons. We develop an instrument that allows us to predict allocations to states based on variation in congressional representation. We find that incumbents in state-wide races in 2020, 2021, and 2022 performed significantly better in states that received more relief funding due to their over-representation in Congress. These results are robust across specifications and after adjusting for a variety of economic and political controls. We consistently find that the pandemic-period electoral advantage of incumbent politicians in states receiving more aid substantially exceeds the more modest advantage these politicians enjoyed during pre-pandemic elections. This paper contributes to our understanding of economic voting and the incumbency advantage during times of crisis as well as the downstream electoral consequences of both the COVID-19 pandemic and of unequal political representation at the federal level.

Vacancy taxation is gaining popularity as a policy tool to address affordable housing shortages and promote urban revitalization. Despite this growing interest, there is a notable gap in the literature assessing the effectiveness of the policy. This paper is the first to examine the effects of vacancy taxation in the context of the United States, and capitalizes on a significant policy change -- a major property tax reform in Washington D.C. -- as a natural experiment. Employing a combination of standard and novel synthetic event study designs, I find evidence that the policy precipitated a large reduction in residential vacancies and an increase in occupied housing units.

This paper employs a synthetic difference-in-differences design to investigate the impact of a major policy change in New York's rent control law, as measured by the number of new private residential housing units authorized by permits. Contrary to arguments in favor of rent control as a mechanism to mitigate rising housing costs, I find a significant decrease in the number of housing units authorized following the policy change under study. This reduction is most pronounced in the multifamily housing sector.

Studies show that economic connectedness, a poor individual's share of wealthy friends, significantly impacts economic mobility. Hawaii ranks highly in this metric compared to other states, but disparities exist in local schools. Private high schools have much higher economic connectedness than public schools, driven mainly by students' exposure to wealthy peers. To improve connectedness, policymakers should consider strategies such as housing voucher programs, which have been shown to improve mobility for low-income families, paired with evidence showing that reducing regulatory constraints on homebuilding can improve housing affordability. Implementing such strategies could create a more opportunity-rich future for Hawaii's low-income residents.